Copper enters a historic bull run, breaking all previous records. On April 11, the price of copper surged past $11,000 per metric ton, marking its 18th all-time high for 2025. The spike on April 10 alone was the sharpest daily increase since the commodity boom of 2011.
This unprecedented rally is not solely driven by supply chain disruptions or industrial demand—it reflects a deeper structural shift in global confidence toward critical raw materials and away from traditional reserve assets.
Barclays sees copper hitting $13,000
Barclays has significantly revised its forecast upward, placing its base case target at $12,400, with a high-scenario projection of $13,000 and a lower bound of $10,700.
Analysts point to sustained demand from renewable energy sectors, aggressive accumulation by sovereign wealth funds, and lingering uncertainties in global bond markets. These forces, combined with regulatory constraints in mining production, are fueling momentum.
JPMorgan targets $14,000 by Q3 2026
JPMorgan offers an even more optimistic outlook. According to senior strategist Marcus Lee, copper could reach $13,500 by the end of 2025 and potentially touch $14,000 by mid-2026.
The scenario is based on explosive demand from electric vehicle manufacturers and infrastructure megaprojects across Asia and the Middle East. A notable factor is the monthly average consumption growth of 3.2%—significantly higher than JPMorgan’s previous estimates.
Broad institutional interest drives the rally
Barclays highlights that the rally isn’t limited to hedge funds or speculative trading desks. The rise of copper as a strategic commodity is becoming apparent in broader portfolio strategies.
Countries such as India and Brazil are reportedly increasing their copper reserves through sovereign commodity funds, while major pension funds are adjusting asset allocations to include long-term copper exposure.
For 2025, Barclays projects institutional buying to surpass 2.1 million tons globally, while physical ETFs are expected to reverse their five-year net outflow trend with inflows exceeding 900,000 tons.
Recession scenario could boost copper even further
If the global economy enters a mild recession—a scenario estimated at a 40% probability by JPMorgan analysts—copper could see accelerated inflows from risk-off investment channels.
In such a case, JPMorgan sees the price rising to as high as $13,800 before year-end. The firm notes that recent inflows into industrial commodity ETFs have exceeded forecasts, pointing to renewed investor interest in tangible assets amid currency volatility and real estate price stagnation.
Low liquidity amplifies volatility
Market liquidity remains constrained due to limited mine expansions and the large stockpiles held by governments and ETFs.
This tightness in supply, combined with investor hesitancy to offload positions, is increasing price volatility and could magnify short-term movements significantly.
Barclays suggests that copper holdings relative to total assets under management are still below the levels observed in the 2010–2011 cycle, leaving substantial room for rebalancing.
Copper re-emerges as a strategic reserve asset
In a world defined by geopolitical fragmentation, accelerated electrification, and fragile financial systems, copper is no longer just an industrial metal—it is becoming a cornerstone of strategic asset planning.
This may not simply be another commodity rally. It could represent the beginning of a new chapter in the global investment playbook, where copper plays a defining role in economic security, energy transitions, and long-term diversification.
